The time is here for the NAIA Football Championship Series. The regular season has wrapped up and we are less than 24 hours from knowing the full field of 20 teams with a shot at the NAIA National Championship in Durham, NC.
Join us Sunday night at 6:30PM ET/5:30PM CT for our NAIA Football Selection Show. We will breakdown the final weekend of football and go through the selections for the NAIA postseason.
Before we get into my projections for the NAIA postseason, I want to be clear these are the projections from Jason Dannelly of the Victory Sports Network. These are not the official pairings for the postseason. I’ve covered NAIA football since 2002 and have quite a bit of experience but even I am wrong. Last year I had all the teams in the postseason minus one. A few years I’ve nailed it and a few years I’ve gotten nailed.
Automatic Berths via Conference Championships
Appalachian Athletic Conference: University of Pikeville
Frontier Conference: Montana Western
Great Plains Athletic Conference: Morningside
Heart Conference North Division: Grand View
Heart Conference South Division: Benedictine
KCAC Kessinger: Friends
KCAC Bissel: Kansas Wesleyan
Mid South Conference: Georgetown
MSFA Mideast: Indiana Wesleyan
MSFA Midwest: University of St. Francis (Ind.)
North Star: Dickinson State
Sooner Athletic Conference: Texas Wesleyan
Sun Conference: Keiser University
These are locked in. There are some conferences where there are co-champions or tri-champions, but the list above reflects the teams to make the postseason. The only variable to consider is if No. 9 Benedictine would somehow get leapfrogged by MidAmerica Nazarene or Baker in the final rating. The Heart three way tie-breaker calls for the team rated highest in the NAIA Top 25 Coaches poll getting the automatic. I don’t see that happening, but wanted to point that out if something crazy happens.
The remaining seven spots in the postseason are picked as at-large berths. These are selected by the NAIA Selection Committee. There is a lot of criteria that goes into the selection process. Rather than explain it all in this article, take a look at this blog put together a few weeks ago.
Here’s my thoughts on the final seven spots in the NAIA Football Championship Series. The first five spots in my mind are easy to lock in based on the selection criteria:
- At Large #1: St. Thomas (Fla.) – #5 NAIA Coaches Poll. #2 in ARC 4
- At Large #2: Montana Tech – #8 NAIA Coaches Poll. #2 in ARC 1
- At Large #3: Northwestern (Iowa) – #10 NAIA Coaches Poll. #3 in ARC 3
- At Large #4: Baker (Kan.) – #12 NAIA Coaches Poll. #3 in ARC 2
- At Large #5: MidAmerica Nazarene – #13 NAIA Coaches Poll. #4 in ARC 2
Looking at the selection criteria and the remaining teams in the selection pool, here’s what what I am looking at for each team. Keep in mind the NAIA Coaches Poll below and ARC ranking are from last week. So a team like Southern Oregon is going to drop.
- Dordt (8-2): #16 NAIA Coaches Poll. #7 in ARC 3. Defeated No. 20 Concordia. Losses to No. 6 Morningside and No. 10 Northwestern.
- OUAZ (8-1): #17 NAIA Coaches Poll. #6 in ARC 1. No Top 25 wins. Loss to No. 7 Texas Wesleyan.
- Southeastern (7-2): #19 NAIA Coaches Poll. #4 in ARC 4. No Top 25 wins. No. 1 Keiser and No. 5 St. Thomas.
- Southern Oregon (8-3): #14 NAIA Coaches Poll. #4 in ARC 4. Defeated No. 4 Montana Western. Losses to No. 23 Carroll, No. 8 Montana Tech and NR College of Idaho.
- Concordia (8-2): #20 NAIA Coaches Poll. #5 in ARC 3. Defeated No. 10 Northwestern. Losses to No. 6 Morningside and No. 16 Dordt.
- Southwestern (10-1): #21 NAIA Coaches Poll. #5 in ARC 2. No Top 25 wins. Loss to No. 22 Friends
- Campbellsville (9-2): #25 NAIA Coaches Poll. #5 in ARC 4. No Top 25 wins. Losses to RV Lindsey Wilson and No. 11 Georgetown.
The NAIA Selection committee will get a new set of rankings tomorrow from the Coaches to work with along with the ARC. In addition to that, they will use an average between the Wolfe Rating and the Versus Rating. I think when those ratings come out, Southern Oregon will be eliminated.
In ARC 1, I think SOU drops from #4 to #6. This will move OUAZ up to #5 in their ARC.
In ARC 2, I think Friends will break the tie at #5 with Southwestern due to their conference title and Southwestern will be #6.
In ARC 3, the loss by USF (Ind.) will move Concordia (Neb.) up to No. 4. and Dordt to No. 5 or No. 6 depending on where USF gets placed due to their loss to Olivet Nazarene.
In ARC 4, I see no changes. Southeastern stays at No. 4.
With all that said, I think there are several scenarios for the final two at-large berths. The committee could decide to lean on overall record and take two one loss teams in OUAZ and Southwestern. They could decide to go with teams who have wins over current Top 25 opponents like Concordia and Dordt. Or they could decide to go with the teams who lost to the highest rated teams with that being Southeastern (Fla.) and Dordt. Lastly, they could pick the highest rated remaining teams in the ARC, which I think will be Southeastern and Concordia. In the end, I don’t think it will be just one of those criteria. Here’s my final two, read more and I’ll explain:
- At Large #6: Ottawa (Arizona)
- At Large #7: Concordia (Neb.)
With that finally decided, here’s what I think the entire postseason field with first round pairings will be:
- No. 1 Seed – Keiser (Bye)
- No. 2 Seed – Grand View (Bye)
- No. 3 Seed – Indiana Wesleyan (Bye)
- No. 4 Seed – Montana Western (Bye)
- No. 5 Seed – St. Thomas (Fla.) (Bye)
- No. 6 Seed – Morningside (Bye)
- No. 7 Seed – Texas Wesleyan (Bye)
- No. 8 Seed – Montana Tech (Bye)
- No. 9 Seed – Benedictine (Bye)
- No. 10 Seed – Northwestern (Bye)
- No. 11 Seed – Georgetown (Bye)
- No. 12 Seed – Baker (Bye)
- No. 13 Seed – MidAmerica Nazarene vs No. 20 Pikeville
- No. 14 Seed – Dickinson State vs No. 19 Kansas Wesleyan
- No. 15 Seed – No. 15 OUAZ vs No. 18 Friends
- No. 16 Seed – No. 16 Concordia vs No. 18 St. Francis (Ind.)
I’ve serious sat in front of the computer for several hours tonight considering every scenario and I’m still not 100% on my pick. I could see a world where Southwestern (Kan.) and OUAZ get selected because they only have one loss. I think that would move Friends to No. 16 as a host playing USF and Southwestern goes to OUAZ.
The other scenario is where both Concordia and Dordt get into the postseason. In this scenario, I think Friends hosts again and Dordt travels to Wichita. Southeastern (Fla.) had a great season, but the two losses and near loss to Ave Maria last week I believe will have the committee look elsewhere for the at-large. If SEU and OUAZ both make it to the postseason, it’ll likely mean two flights in the first round.
I think Baker gets the No. 12 seed and draws a bye but I could see them flipped with MNU. I wouldn’t argue that but based on the ratings and the ARC, Baker gets the bye. Dickinson State should host in the first round. They’ve won 14 conference titles and haven’t hosted a home playoff game since 2004 against Carroll College. Given their rating, I see them drawing KWU.
Speaking of Carroll College. . .let’s talk about the Frontier Conference. First, my projections above are based on the postseason criteria and what I think the National Selection Committee will decide, it’s not my opinion of who I think are the best teams in NAIA football. In my opinion, either SOU or Carroll should get the final spot of the at-large pool with OUAZ getting the other.
I’ve watched a ton of NAIA football on film this year and just as many games as they happened on livestreams. SOU and Carroll College are solid football teams that are good enough to make the postseason and likely win a first round game. Unfortunately with their losses in the final week of the regular season, I don’t see them making it in. SOU has a shot. . .but the target is very small.
The NAIA Football Selection Show is Sunday night. All questions will be answered then. If you don’t like my projections, that’s absolutely fine because I’ve been wrong many times. I hope you decide to join us on our livestream for the discussion and to see the pairings.