Using the NAIA’s criteria for selection, here is what I am projecting for the NAIA Championship Series Qualifiers. Keep in mind there is a little guess work here because there are three weeks left of the regular season and a lot can happen.
The NAIA Football Performance Index will not be the only determining factor for the at-large berths. There’s a whole committee of people, ARC raters, Massey rating and other criteria determining the final seven spots.
First let’s take care of the conference champions who will get the 13 automatic berths as of today:
| School | Qualification Projection |
|---|---|
| Reinhardt | Appalachian Athletic Conference Champion |
| Montana Tech | Frontier Conference East Champion |
| Carroll (Mont.) | Frontier Conference West Champion |
| Grand View (Iowa) | Heart North Champion |
| Benedictine (Kan.) | Heart South Champion |
| Dordt (Iowa) | GPAC Champion |
| Friends (Kan.) | KCAC Bissel Champion |
| Evangel (Mo.) | KCAC Kessinger Champion |
| Marian (Ind.) | MSFA Midwest Champion |
| Indiana Wesleyan | MSFA Mideast Champion |
| Campbellsville (Ky.) | Mid South Conference Champion |
| OUAZ (Ariz.) | Sooner Athletic Conference Champion |
| Keiser (Fla.) | Sun Conference Champion |
Before everyone starts yelling about how this team could beat that team so this team would be the conference champion. . .chill. I know if Dordt loses to Morningside, Morningside would have the tie-breaker. I know if Rocky Mountain wins out, they’ll win the Frontier Conference East, etc etc. These are projections to get us to a final spot.
This year the NAIA is using the NAIA Football Performance Index in place of the NAIA Coaches’ Top 25 as primary criteria along with Overall W/L record, ARC Rating, Massey Rating and Record Versus Teams in ARC.
Pulling out the automatic qualifiers, here’s what the average ranking between the NAIA PI and Massey Rating would look like:
| NAIA PI | Massey | School | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Lindsey Wilson (Ky.) | 6 |
| 15 | 5 | Morningside (Iowa) | 10 |
| 10 | 11 | College of Idaho | 10.5 |
| 14 | 18 | Southeastern (Fla.) | 16 |
| 13 | 25 | McPherson (Kan.) | 19 |
| 11 | 28 | William Penn (Iowa) | 19.5 |
| 21 | 19 | Bethel (Tenn.) | 20 |
| 25 | 16 | Georgetown (Ky.) | 20.5 |
| 29 | 13 | Montana Western | 21 |
| 23 | 22 | Cumberland (Tenn.) | 22.5 |
| 18 | 27 | Saint Francis (Ind.) | 22.5 |
| 30 | 17 | St. Thomas (Fla.) | 23.5 |
| 27 | 21 | Concordia (Neb.) | 24 |
| 34 | 14 | Northwestern (Iowa) | 24 |
| 24 | 26 | Olivet Nazarene (Ill.) | 25 |
| 26 | 24 | Southwestern (Kan.) | 25 |
| 32 | 23 | Midland (Neb.) | 27.5 |
| 27 | 32 | Saint Xavier (Ill.) | 29.5 |
| 22 | 37 | Texas Wesleyan | 29.5 |
| 34 | 29 | Baker | 31.5 |
| 31 | 40 | Dakota State (S.D.) | 35.5 |
| 41 | 31 | Florida Memorial | 36 |
| 39 | 34 | U-Cumberlands | 36.5 |
| 20 | 57 | Louisiana Christian | 38.5 |
| 44 | 33 | Rocky Mountain | 38.5 |
| 59 | 35 | Southern Oregon | 47 |
| 33 | 66 | Wayland Baptist (Texas) | 49.5 |
If the NAIA Selection Committee only used this criteria the cutoff for the seven at-large berths would be Bethel TN being the final team in the field of 20. I think the first six in front of them are a pretty solid group that I would lean toward making the postseason without much else for criteria. But, that’s where we have to examine the ARC Rating, Overall W/L and Record in the ARC.
In the East ARC, Bethel is No. 7. Add that to their loss last weekend and I think that eliminates them from the conversation. Southeastern and Georgetown are in front of them and I think SEU will ultimately be #3 in the ARC. I think this secures SEU’s spot in the postseason, even with a loss to Keiser. Georgetown is right there too, but they need to win out to make the postseason.
In the Midwest ARC, William Penn is #4, in front of McPherson. Both teams have great records and need to win out to make the postseason. If they both do that, I think they are in. If McPherson loses to Southwestern, that might boost the Moundbuilders into an at-large. . .or eliminate both of them.
In the North ARC, the Top 4 are solid and should all qualify based on their merits of the season. Dordt and Morningside could flip flop but as long as they take care of business in all of their other games, I’d say they are in. Olivet Nazarene is a quality team and could compete in the postseason, but I think they are on the fringe and need to win out to secure a spot.
In the West ARC, we have a similar situation where I think the Top 4 teams are secure if they win out. If College of Idaho drops a game that will put them into a fight with Montana Western who is on the outside looking in at the moment. There’s a lot of season left to determine who makes it.
Using all this criteria and how I think the games will go the next three weeks, here’s the team’s I think will be in the NAIA Championship Series.
Automatic Berths to the NAIA Championship Series
- Reinhardt – Appalachian Athletic Conference Champion
- Montana Tech – Frontier Conference East Champion
- Carroll (Mont.) – Frontier Conference West Champion
- Grand View (Iowa) – Heart North Champion
- Benedictine (Kan.) – Heart South Champion
- Dordt (Iowa) – GPAC Champion
- Friends (Kan.) – KCAC Bissel Champion
- Evangel (Mo.) – KCAC Kessinger Champion
- Marian (Ind.) – MSFA Midwest Champion
- Indiana Wesleyan – MSFA Mideast Champion
- Campbellsville (Ky.) – Mid South Conference Champion
- OUAZ (Ariz.) – Sooner Athletic Conference Champion
- Keiser (Fla.) – Sun Conference Champion
At-Large Berths to the NAIA Championship Series
- At Large #1: Lindsey Wilson University (Ky.)
- At Large #2: Morningside University (Iowa)
- At Large #3: College of Idaho
- At Large #4: Southeastern (Fla.)
- At Large #5: William Penn (Iowa)
- At Large #6: McPherson (Kan.)
The last spot is going to be quite contentious. If Georgetown or Olivet Nazarene win out, I’d say they’d get first crack at it. Cumberland (TN) also has a shot if they win out. Montana Western is on the fringe, same as St. Francis (Ind.). They all have to win football games to make it happen. My prediction for today is the winner of ONU/USF gets the final spot.
- At Large #7: Olivet Nazarene
ONU’s resume would include losses to the MSFA Mideast and Midwest league champions. I think that’s a solid resume that would give them the final spot in the postseason at the moment.
But as usual. . .it’s way to early to be accurate! Give it a few more weeks and I’ll have a few more predictions.