We’re heading into the final two weeks of the NAIA regular season, and the schedule is loaded with great matchups that carry major postseason implications. As we turn our attention toward the NAIA Championship Series, I want to offer a few reminders about how the postseason works and how qualifying teams are selected.
First, the NAIA Championship Series features 20 teams, with 13 automatic qualifiers coming from conference champions. Each conference’s champion—determined either outright or through that conference’s tiebreaker procedures—earns an automatic berth in the postseason.
The remaining seven at-large spots are selected by the NAIA Football National Selection Committee. Eligibility for those seven spots is based on the ARC Ratings (Area Rating Committees). There are four regional ARC rankings, each listing eight teams (ranked 1–8) based on the committee’s evaluation of team strength within that region. The 32 teams that appear in the final ARC Ratings make up the pool of programs eligible for the at-large bids. If your team does not appear in the final ARC Ratings, it cannot be considered for an at-large spot.
It’s also important to note that the NAIA Coaches’ Top 25 Poll has no role in the postseason process. It is not used for qualification, selection, or seeding. So, if you’re looking at the Top 25 to predict who’s in or out, you’re headed down the wrong path. The Selection Committee handles both the seeding and selection for the Championship Series, and only the teams appearing in the ARC Ratings are part of that process.
Once the 32 ARC teams are identified, the conference champions are removed from the list, and the remaining programs are evaluated on a set of primary and secondary criteria to determine the final seven at-large qualifiers. There is no specific order or weighting to the criteria—the committee considers all factors collectively when selecting the final postseason field.
Primary Criteria
- Overall Record/Winning Percentage
- ARC Rating
- Massey
- NAIA Football Performance Index
- Record vs. Teams ranked in ARCs
Secondary Criteria
- Conference Standing
- Competition Level/Results vs. Non-NAIA Opponents
- Head-to-Head
- Opponents Record
If needed there is additional information for consideration the NAIA Football Selection Committee uses which includes: Team Stats, Team Schedule, Home/Away/Neutral Records, Score, Common Opponents, Injury Status – Players out in key games, etc. and Weather-Related Outcomes.
I present all of this to the fans and readers of the website to hopefully shed some more light on the postseason process which as undergone some changes in recent years. Most recently, the NAIA Performance Index has replaced the Top 25 poll in the criteria for postseason. Ultimately it is my goal to get as many people that follow NAIA football to understand the process to avoid any surprises as we head into the final week of the season.
I’ve updated my predictions for the postseason from last week, you can see those at the end of this blog.
Featured NAIA Football Games
#3 Benedictine at RV Baker University: One of the oldest rivalries in the Heart Conference could decide who gets the automatic berth into the NAIA Championship Series this weekend. Baker has won five straight games to be undefeated in Heart South play and is tied at the top of the standings with Benedictine. If Baker upsets Benedictine, they will lock up the Heart South Conference title and be the automatic qualifier into the NAIA Championship Series regardless of what happens in the final week of the regular season.
There is a lot on the line for the Ravens who have breezed through their recent schedule with relative ease before entering the final two weeks of the regular season. The postseason starts this week for Benedictine who need to win out to secure an outright Heart South Title. While this is a huge rivalry in NAIA football, I ultimately think Benedictine is the better team with more consistency on both sides of the ball. Baker has done a tremendous job of turning their season around, but their run ends this week against the Ravens.
Benedictine 35 Baker University 24
RV Bethel University (TN) at #11 Campbellsville: Bethel University controls their postseason destiny by still being in contention for a Mid South Conference title. A win this week over Campbellsville and next week over Lindsey Wilson would give the Wildcats the MSC title via tiebreaker because of head to head wins over their rivals. Essentially, Bethel’s postseason run starts this week at Finley Stadium.
While the Wildcats have come around and are a talented group, the Fightin’ Tigers already had their wake up call and are focused on what needs to happen this week. Campbellsville is in control of the MSC crown, so long as they continue to win. They’ve proving they can score points on anybody but as they enter the final two weeks of the regular season the Campbellsville D needs to tighten up to make the Tigers a complete team ready to do damage in the NAIA Championship Series.
Campbellsville 42 Bethel TN 27
#15 College of Idaho at #8 Carroll College: The Frontier West Conference title will be controlled by the winner of this game as we enter the final week of the season. College of Idaho has shown flashes of greatness this season but has also left me scratching me head at times. They played Montana Tech tougher than anybody this season, but also went to the wire against 3-5 Eastern Oregon.
Carroll College had been cruising before last week’s game at Southern Oregon where the Red Raiders nearly knocked off the Fighting Saints. The Saints found a way, which is what championship teams do on the road. The evolution of the Saints offense has been something to watch this year and their defense has shown they can lock teams down when needed. The D needs to step up this week against COI who has proven to be solid in all aspects of their offense. I expect this to be the best game in NAIA Football this week.
Carroll College 31 College of Idaho 28
RV Concordia at #6 Dordt: The Defenders are undefeated and in control of the GPAC Crown but needs to stay focused and on track the next to weeks to secure a perfect regular season and their first conference title in program history. Last week, Dordt battled and in tough road game against Hastings College and ultimately made the plays they needed to get the win. This week their rushing attack needs to bring their A game and the passing game needs to be efficient to get this needed win.
Concordia is trying to make a case for themselves to get an at-large berth into the NAIA Championship Series. Their loss to Morningside isn’t making the case tough but their loss in OT to Midland is. The Bulldogs need a quality victory and a win over the No. 6 team in the country might do it. The biggest weakness of the Bulldogs is their passing defense which ranks last in the GPAC allowing 276.8 yards per game. Fortunately for the Bulldogs, Dordt has the 3rd fewest passing yards in the conference and only gives up 94 yards per game on the ground. If the Dawgs can hold the Dordt offense in check, they could shock GPAC nation.
Dordt 35 Concordia 24
#14 Southeastern at #2 Keiser: If Keiser loses this game, it will be chaos in the Sun Conference as three teams would be tied for first heading into the final week of play. SEU, FMU and Keiser would all have one loss if the Fire upset the Seahawks on Saturday and everyone else wins out. The tie breaker in the Sun would go to the team rated highest in the final ARC rating. SEU has shown this season they are capable of playing elite level football and winning big games and need a strong performance to move up in the ARC rating. But they have also shown some inconsistency that ultimately cost them a win against Florida Memorial.
Ultimately, I think Keiser is the more complete team with a physical offensive and defensive line. There are a bunch of guys on either side of the ball that can make big plays when needed. Keiser has seemingly reloaded and is ready for a title run again in 2025. They have one of the NAIA’s best leaders in Shea Spencer at QB and a potent running attack. Look for KU to get the W.
Keiser 31 Southeastern 17
Primetime Performances
Pikeville (Ky.) quarterback Xavier Malone broke the Pikeville record for single-game pass completions, connecting on 43-of-57 for 437 yards in a 49-14 win over Union Commonwealth (Ky.). He accounted for all seven of the Bears’ scores, six through the air and another on the ground. Malone is the NAIA’s leader at 376.4 passing yards per game and one of two quarterbacks with 3,000 or more yards on the season.
Indiana Wesleyan safety Vincie Solano was pivotal to Indiana Wesleyan staying unbeaten in the MSFA Mideast, recording a game-high 14 tackles and a pair of crucial interceptions in a 56-48 win over Taylor (Ind.). Solano’s fourth-quarter pick kept the game tied and enabled the Wildcats to score a go-ahead touchdown late in the game.
In the same game IWU QB Arjun Lothe was 24-33 for 435 yards with five touchdowns as he broke the Wildcats single season passing record for yards in a season.
Freddy Joya, kicker at Texas Wesleyan was the NAIA’s Special Teams honoree for the second time this season, accounting for 19 of the Rams’ 46 points in a 34-point win over Oklahoma Panhandle State. Joya connected on five field goals with a long of 39, adding four made point-after attempts as Texas Wesleyan won the game 46-12 to remain in first place in the Sooner Athletic Conference.
University of Saint Francis QB Josh Kulka kept the Cougars postseason hopes alive with a 25-39 passing performance for 288 yards. He finished the game with two touchdowns and no interceptions.
Bethel University RB Ryan Kirk had a pivotal touchdown in the Wildcats upset victory over previous No. 16 Georgetown College. Kirk found paydirt in the first overtime for his second touchdown of the game to give the Cats the victory. Kirk carried the ball on every down of OT before scoring the game winner.
Saturday might have been National Tight End Day for the NAIA. Carroll College TE Carson Ochoa was key to the Saints 41-40 victory over Southern Oregon University. Ochoa, a returning All-American, had seven receptions for 108 yards and four touchdowns. Olivet Nazarene TE Blake Lamb had seven receptions for 160 yards and a touchdown. Benedictine TE Tanner Zimmerman had three receptions for 67 yards and a touchdown.
McPherson College RB Jalil Brown carried the ball 45 times for 274 yards in the Bulldogs 53-40 victory over Southwestern College. He added three touchdowns to his season total of 16 touchdowns.
Kasey Lehman of Friends University hauled in two interceptions for the No. 4-ranked Friends University Falcons in a 63-6 victory over (RV) Kansas Wesleyan University, including an 80-yard pick six on the Coyotes’ first possession of the second half. Lehman now has three interceptions on the season along with 19 tackles, three tackles for loss and one sack.
Dakota Wesleyan quarterback Connor Drake stepped in the starting QB role this week due to injury this week, and went off. He went 26-39 for 402 yards and four touchdowns in 44-41 overtime win against Mount Marty. It was the first time a Dakota Wesleyan quarterback surpassed 400 yards passing since the 2018 season. In the same game Cody Winslow of Dakota Wesleyan University filled up the stat sheet with seven total tackles, 2.5 sacks, 3.5 TFLs. He also forced a fumble that was picked up and returned for a touchdown. Additionally, he blocked an extra point.
Brennen Davis of Wayland Baptist aided the Pioneers to a 45-27 win over Nelson by having 10 tackles, with four of those being solo stops. Davis also had a tackle for a loss of two yards and added an interception that he returned 15 yards for a touchdown in the victory. The win puts Wayland Baptist at 6-2 overall, one short of their program record of seven wins.
Darius Stokes of Florida Memorial was a defensive force against Webber in the Lions’ 42-19 victory. He had nine total tackles, including five solo, along with one tackle for loss, one forced fumble, a pass breakup, and an interception. His efforts allowed FMU to hold Webber to only 95 yards of passing offense
Keiser University RB Jaden Miller recorded the fifth 100-yard rushing game of his career with 104 yards on 13 carries as the Seahawks defeated Ave Maria, 42-7. The KU running back also registered three rushing touchdowns to increase his season total to 13. He was a big part of Keiser’s 255 yards on the ground, marking the second time the Seahawks have rushed for 250 yards or more in a game in 2025. On the year, Miller has recorded 666 yards (leads the conference) on 111 carries (averaging 6.0 yards per rush).
NAIA Coaches Top 25 Thoughts
By in large, I think the poll is really good but there are some moves that don’t make sense to me. In previous week’s I’ve seen losses by teams in the Top 25 to unranked opponents typically be 7-8 spots. Examples:
Montana Western was beaten by now No. 8 Carroll College on October 11th. They fell 7 spots. Carroll was rated No. 15 at the time.
Morningside was beaten by Northwestern by 1 point on October 18th. They fell 7 spots. Northwestern was receiving votes at the time.
This week Georgetown lost to RV Bethel. They fell. . .5 spots? And it’s their 3rd loss of the year? But at the same time Southwestern lost to McPherson, a top 25 team, and the Moundbuilders fell 7 spots to No. 25. Meanwhile Northwestern has to go to OT to beat an unranked Midland and moves up three spots?
Doing a rating isn’t easy. I do one every week and you are going to catch flack from people regardless of what you do. But the inconsistency in drops from one team to another makes me thing the NAME of the team throughout history means more than the product the current team is putting on the field. A good example of that is in the Frontier Conference. You have a team like Dakota State at 6-2 that continues to get glossed over week after week. (I’ll discuss that more below in my postseason projections.)
I watch a ton of live games each week and coaches’ video via Hudl. There are some teams who are recognizable names getting the benefit of the doubt in the poll while others are doing everything right and get no recognition at all.
I’m not going to go through and spell out all of my projections this week the way that I did last week. To see my full explanation, check out this article.
Based on what happened last week and the new Performance Index and Massey Rating this week, here’s what I am projecting for the qualifiers into the NAIA Championship Series.
Automatic Berths to the NAIA Championship Series
- Reinhardt – Appalachian Athletic Conference Champion
- Montana Tech – Frontier Conference East Champion
- Carroll (Mont.) – Frontier Conference West Champion
- Grand View (Iowa) – Heart North Champion
- Benedictine (Kan.) – Heart South Champion
- Dordt (Iowa) – GPAC Champion
- Friends (Kan.) – KCAC Bissel Champion
- Evangel (Mo.) – KCAC Kessinger Champion
- Marian (Ind.) – MSFA Midwest Champion
- Indiana Wesleyan – MSFA Mideast Champion
- Campbellsville (Ky.) – Mid South Conference Champion
- OUAZ (Ariz.) – Sooner Athletic Conference Champion
- Keiser (Fla.) – Sun Conference Champion
At-Large Berths to the NAIA Championship Series
If the following teams win the games they need to, I feel all are in the postseason.
- At Large #1: Lindsey Wilson University (Ky.)
- At Large #2: Morningside University (Iowa)
- At Large #3: College of Idaho
- At Large #4: Southeastern (Fla.)
- At Large #5: William Penn (Iowa)
- At Large #6: McPherson (Kan.)
- At Large #7: St. Francis (Ind.)
On the Bubble
If the teams above faulter or if there is a shakeup in the ARC Ratings, I think the following teams have a shot at the postseason based on the primary and secondary criteria.
- Concordia (Neb.)
- Texas Wesleyan
- Cumberland TN
- Montana Western
- Dakota State
Montana Western has three losses and I think is still on the outside looking in despite the fact they are a really good squad. Cumberland (TN) could also be on the bubble, I don’t think the committee selects an at-large with three losses which I believe eliminates both from consideration.
Cumberland TN and Texas Wesleyan goes against my thinking that a three loss team would not make the postseason only because none of TWU’s current losses are against NAIA competition and if Cumberland wins out, they would have two Top 10 wins. We can determine more on how they finish up this year. The same could be said for Bethel TN, but a bad loss to Cumberlands (KY) I think will hold them out of the at-large and their win over Georgetown keeps the Tigers out of the postseason who also have three losses.
Dakota State is a team that if they win out deserves serious consideration for the postseason. They lost to Montana Tech and Dakota Wesleyan. The DWU loss came in Week 0 and part of the “other considerations” for postseason play is injury. The Trojans had a lot of of things happening in that game. First, their starting QB was still recovering from a 2024 injury. He has since played the rest of the season and played very well. Additionally their defensive coordinator had to unfortunately had to step down before the game due to health issues. They lost to DWU on a kick return for a touchdown and missed three field goals, including the last play of the game, which was a field goal from the 2 yard line. It would seem the woes from Week 0 have been worked out.
We’ve still got two weekends of football to be played with some key matchups happening this week to determine conference championships. These are just projections from a blogger who covers NAIA football and do not have any bearing on the opinions of the NAIA National Selection Committee.
With that said, get on out there and enjoy some NAIA football!!!