Around the NAIAtion for November 15th: Postseason Projections for NAIA Football

The final week of the NAIA football season is here, and we’re gearing up for the NAIA Championship Series. For those who’ve been following along all season, I want to apologize in advance — this week’s article will be a little different. Instead of the usual mix of content, the focus will be almost entirely on the NAIA postseason, with just a few other notes sprinkled in.

For those who are new — welcome to NAIA football!

Below, I’ll break down the postseason scenarios by conference and then wrap things up with my overall final projection heading into the last week of play.

Be sure to join us this Sunday night at a special time as NAIA Football with Dannelly and Donley presents our Championship Series Selection Show LIVE at 6:30 ET / 5:30 CT!
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Appalachian Athletic Conference

The AAC Conference Champion is the only team that will be represented in the NAIA Championship Series. No one else is rated high enough in the ARC Ratings, NAIA Performance Index or has a good enough record to make the postseason. That will be decided this weekend when Pikeville goes to Reinhardt for the season finale. The winner is in the postseason. The loser stays home.

Frontier Conference East

Montana Tech leads the way in the Frontier Conference East. They will end the season as the conference champion and get the automatic berth. Dakota State is currently 7-2 overall and sitting second in the league. They should be considered for the postseason but ultimately I don’t know if the NAIA Football Selection Committee will deem their resume worthy.

Frontier Conference West

After last weekend’s game between College of Idaho and Carroll College it’s the Yotes leading the way. Carroll College still has a shot to make the postseason as an at-large and ultimately I think their resume will be good enough to do it with just two losses. Despite being in the Top 25, Montana Western is a three loss team and I think will be on the outside looking in even though they are a postseason worthy team. They’re on the bubble but it hasn’t burst yet.

Great Plains Athletic Conference

The showdown this week between Dordt and Morningside will determine a lot of things for the GPAC. I’m a believer that both teams will make the postseason regardless of the outcome but the loser will have their seeding end up much lower than they had hoped. I don’t see anyone else from the league making it to the postseason. My pick for the title is Dordt, but never count out Morningside.

Heart of America North Division

Grand View is in the postseason as the conference champion. William Penn should make the postseason if they win this weekend at Saint Ambrose. A loss will put the Statesmen on the bubble. My crystal ball says William Penn wins and the Heart North gets two in the postseason.

Heart of America South Division

Last weekend’s game between Baker and Benedictine put the Ravens in the driver’s seat headed into the final week of play. Benedictine needs to win against MidAmerica Nazarene this week to keep things clean in the conference and protect their high seed. Even if BC loses, they’ll be the only rep in the postseason because of the potential three way tie and how the Heart will break the tie.

KCAC Bissell

Friends will be in as the conference champion. McPherson’s loss last weekend against Kansas Wesleyan has put everything in this league in turmoil. McPherson, Kansas Wesleyan and Southwestern all could make an argument to make the NAIA Championship Series. This leagues shot at getting two teams in the postseason is really up in the air going into the final week of the season. McPherson is the team with the most likely shot in my opinion.

KCAC Kessinger

Evangel will make the NAIA Championship Series as the conference champion. That’s all that will make it from this side of the league.

Mid South Conference

Campbellsville is in the driver’s seat to win the conference title if they beat Georgetown this week. A loss by GC I think takes them out of contention for the postseason. A win keeps them hanging around. Lindsey Wilson will make it to the postseason as an at-large if they beat Bethel this week. A loss hurts LWU, but I don’t think knocks them out. However, if Campbellsville and LWU lose. . .chaos. That would mean Campbellsville, LWU, Bethel and Georgetown would all be 4-2 in the conference. The scenario for a four way tiebreaker would favor Campbellsville because they have one less loss head to head against the four teams tied.

Mid States Football Association Mideast

If Indiana Wesleyan wins this week against Siena Heights University, they will be the outright conference champion and automatic qualifier to the NAIA Championship Series. If they lose, SHU, IWU and Taylor will end in a three way tie for first. The MSFA tiebreaker would be a vote by the coaches in the league to rank the three teams. The team with the highest rating in the MSFA coaches vote would get the nomination.

Mid States Football Association Midwest

The Saint Xavier win over Olivet Nazarene has left the door open for a three way tie with SXU, USF and Marian University if the Knights lose their final game against SXU. I’m predicting Marian wins it outright but if not, the tiebreaker scenario explained in the Mideast above would apply.

Sooner Athletic Conference

Last weekend Texas Wesleyan lost to OUAZ putting the Spirit in control of the conference and the ability to win it outright this weekend against Louisiana Christian. LCU has one loss in the conference to TWU and if they were to upset OUAZ that would mean another three way tie for the title. I see OUAZ getting the win at home and going to the NAIA Championship Series

Sun Conference

Keiser University’s win over Southeastern (Fla.) gave the Seahawks the outright conference title. Southeastern is on the better half of the NAIA Championship Series bubble with a 7-2 record. Ultimately their loss to Florida Memorial earlier this year might come back to bite them. In the end, I think the Fire get an at-large. St. Thomas is also on the bubble. Despite their high ranking in the Top 25, none of that matters and STU needs help in the NAIA Performance Index and other stipulations to make the postseason.

Projected Automatic Berths to the NAIA Championship Series

• Reinhardt – Appalachian Athletic Conference Champion
• Montana Tech – Frontier Conference East Champion
• College of Idaho – Frontier Conference West Champion
• Grand View (Iowa) – Heart North Champion
• Benedictine (Kan.) – Heart South Champion
• Dordt (Iowa) – GPAC Champion
• Friends (Kan.) – KCAC Bissel Champion
• Evangel (Mo.) – KCAC Kessinger Champion
• Marian (Ind.) – MSFA Midwest Champion
• Indiana Wesleyan – MSFA Mideast Champion
• Campbellsville (Ky.) – Mid South Conference Champion
• OUAZ (Ariz.) – Sooner Athletic Conference Champion
• Keiser (Fla.) – Sun Conference Champion

Projected At-Large Berths to the NAIA Championship Series

If the following teams win the games they need to, I feel all are in the postseason. Morningside can lose to Dordt and still make the postseason and I feel the same about Lindsey Wilson if they lose to Bethel. An LWU loss is less likely. However, it would just make things much more messy.

• At Large #1: Lindsey Wilson University (Ky.)
• At Large #2: Morningside University (Iowa)
• At Large #3: Carroll College
• At Large #4: William Penn (Iowa)
• At Large #5: Southeastern (Fla.)
• At Large #6: St. Francis (Ind.)
• At Large #7: This is much tougher this week.

On the Bubble and At-Large No. 7

If the teams above faulter or if there is a shakeup in the ARC Ratings, I think the following teams have a shot at the postseason based on the primary and secondary criteria. All of this could change on Thursday when the new ARC Rating comes out!

Additionally, all these teams need to win to be considered next Sunday and be rated in their respective ARCs. Keep in mind a win will boost their numbers in both rankings. At the end of this blog are all the ratings and records used for this evaluation.

• McPherson: 8-2 record, #13 in the NAIA PI, #26 in Massey.
• St. Thomas: 6-3 record, #30 in the NAIA PI, #17 in Massey.
• Dakota State: 7-2 record, #23 in the NAIA PI, #32 in Massey.
• Montana Western: 7-3 record, #31 in the NAIA PI, #14 in Massey.
• Kansas Wesleyan: 7-3 record, #25 in the NAIA PI, #44 in Massey.
• Southwestern: 7-3 record, #25 in the NAIA PI, #28 in Massey.
• Georgetown: 6-3 record, #32 in the NAIA PI, #16 in Massey.
• Cumberland TN: 6-4 record, #20 in the NAIA PI, #21 in Massey. (One loss to FCS TN Tech)
• Northwestern IA: 6-3 record, #29 in the NAIA PI, #13 in Massey.
• St. Xavier: 7-3 record, #20 in the NAIA PI, #30 in Massey.
• Louisiana Christian: 7-3 record, #22 in the NAIA PI, #56 in Massey. (One loss to FCS McNeese)

If I had to land on a pick for At-Large No. 7 today, it would be McPherson. If not the Bulldogs, my guess would be St. Thomas (Fla.). McPherson, KWU and Southwestern have caused enough chaos that the selection committee might look at the whole group and not be able to decipher which one of the three they are going to take and end up taking none. I think McPherson is still the most likely to make it from that grouping.

I’m still beating the drum for two loss teams over three loss teams. That’s where I think Dakota State has a real shot at being considered. But if they don’t move up in the ARC past Montana Western, they have no shot at making the postseason.

I’ll take another look this week after the ARC Ratings come out and likely redo my selections based off that. See you late Thursday or Friday for that!

Featured NAIA Football Games

I’m keeping it short, simple and sweet this week as we head into the final week of the season.

IWU at Siena Heights: IWU is the more complete squad and gets the W.
IWU 42 SHU 21

Florida Memorial at St. Thomas: STU knows they need to win to get to the postseason.
STU 28 FMU 21

MidAmerica Nazarene at Benedictine: BC has been down this road before and won’t faulter.
BC 35 MNU 21

Campbellsville at Georgetown: Tiger and Tigers. CU’s offense will be too much for GC
CU 42 Georgetown 24

Dordt at Morningside: Both are in the postseason, but only one can win the crown.
Dordt 31 Morningside 24

Pikeville at Reinhardt: The postseason starts this week for the AAC. The winner goes to the NAIA Championship Series.
Reinhardt 28 U-Pike 21

Ramblings of Dannelly

It’s been a pleasure having all of you follow along for the ride this year. I realize after next weekend a lot of you could go into hibernation on NAIA football until next year because your team is no longer involved. There’s no reason to do that. . .stick around! Cheer for your conference or hate on your rival to lose and then say “SEE WE SHOULD’VE MADE IT!”

These athletes deserve the attention and the best part of the season is just around the corner. We get to see matchups from all across the country finally get the opportunity to see how they stack up conference by conference and region by region.

See you Sunday at 6:30PM ET/5:30PM CT for NAIA Football with Dannelly and Donley: Selection Show Edition!!!