Notable results since my last Top 25:
- Grace loses for the first time this season
- Lourdes loses 4 games
- Southwestern KS and TN Southern both lose 2 games
- Madonna and Hastings have a great run, taking the leads in their conferences
- Georgetown has beaten both leaders of the Mid-South
| VSN Rating | Team | Record | Conf | Rat | SoS | SSF | vs NAIA | vs Top 40 | vs. winners | losses to losers |
| 1 | Grace IN | 25-1 | Crossroads | 1 | 15 | 15 | 25-1 | 10-1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | Col of Idaho | 25-2 | Cascade | 2 | 57 | 59 | 23-2 | 6-1 | 9-2 | |
| 3 | OK Wesleyan | 25-1 | KCAC | 4 | 166 | 160 | 25-1 | 3-1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | Langston | 25-2 | Sooner | 5 | 164 | 158 | 25-1 | 0-0 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | IN Wesleyan | 22-3 | Crossroads | 3 | 10 | 10 | 22-3 | 6-2 | 11-3 | |
| 6 | Oregon Tech | 22-4 | Cascade | 9 | 41 | 47 | 22-4 | 4-3 | 9-4 | |
| 7 | Arizona Chr | 19-7 | GSAC | 12 | 26 | 29 | 19-7 | 8-4 | 10-5 | 2 |
| 8 | MT Tech | 20-5 | Frontier | 8 | 30 | 28 | 18-4 | 4-2 | 5-3 | 2 |
| 9 | Cumberlands KY | 22-4 | Mid South | 11 | 49 | 55 | 20-3 | 3-2 | 10-3 | 1 |
| 10 | Freed-Hardeman | 22-4 | Mid South | 6 | 64 | 72 | 22-4 | 3-2 | 10-4 | |
| 11 | Concordia NE | 20-6 | GPAC | 10 | 17 | 22 | 20-5 | 3-4 | 10-5 | |
| 12 | Marian IN | 20-6 | Crossroads | 7 | 24 | 20 | 20-6 | 3-4 | 4-5 | |
| 13 | TN Southern | 23-4 | SSAC | 14 | 61 | 64 | 23-4 | 0-2 | 8-3 | 1 |
| 14 | The Master’s | 19-8 | GSAC | 22 | 38 | 38 | 17-7 | 8-4 | 9-6 | 2 |
| 15 | Northwestern IA | 20-6 | GPAC | 16 | 35 | 30 | 20-6 | 4-4 | 10-5 | 1 |
| 16 | Roosevelt | 21-3 | Chicagoland | 37 | 187 | 190 | 21-3 | 1-0 | 9-1 | 1 |
| 17 | MidAmerica | 22-4 | Heart | 15 | 83 | 79 | 22-4 | 0-2 | 8-3 | 1 |
| 18 | Madonna | 22-4 | WHAC | 17 | 81 | 97 | 22-4 | 4-4 | 8-4 | |
| 19 | Hastings | 19-8 | GPAC | 32 | 20 | 20 | 19-7 | 5-2 | 10-7 | |
| 20 | SW Assemb God | 18-9 | Sooner | 44 | 73 | 82 | 17-8 | 2-2 | 6-5 | 2 |
| 21 | Georgetown KY | 18-6 | Mid South | 19 | 98 | 70 | 16-6 | 2-3 | 6-4 | |
| 22 | Ottawa AZ | 18-8 | GSAC | 25 | 43 | 29 | 13-8 | 6-6 | 7-6 | 1 |
| 23 | Southwestern KS | 22-4 | KCAC | 17 | 143 | 146 | 19-4 | 1-3 | 4-4 | |
| 24 | Bethel IN | 17-9 | Crossroads | 21 | 2 | 2 | 17-9 | 2-8 | 7-8 | |
| 25 | Huntington | 16-8 | Crossroads | 13 | 7 | 8 | 16-8 | 4-6 | 6-8 |
Comments
See the How They Fared for results since my last rating.
Grace lost to Huntington, but is still the best team in the NAIA.
Lourdes lost all four of their games since my last rating. It does appear that they lost one of their players (Coleman, 8.8 ppg) to injury the game before the losing streak started, but was back for Indiana Tech on Saturday but they still lost. They’ve still got a chance to get back into the race, but they don’t have much room for error.
The GPAC is still beating each other up. My rating reflects how I think they will finish. Hastings currently leads the conference by one game, but I think Concordia will beat them this week and win out. My rating isn’t bound by tie breaking rules, so I am keeping them higher rated than Hastings and the others for now.
The GSAC as well is still a mess, with 5 teams within 1 game of first place, and two games to go. Here also, my rating reflects how I think they will finish. There might be a 3 way tie for first, but ACU and OUAZ stay at home for the final 2 games and they’re a good bet to win those.
In the Mid-South, same song different verse. Freed-Hardeman and Cumberlands are neck and neck and I think will finish tied. I give Cumberlands the edge based solely on their slightly tougher schedule. Georgetown has beaten both them now, so they’ve earned their way into my Top 25. I just think their soft schedule is meant to hide something.
Other teams to watch in no particular order:
FL Memorial
Jessup
Morningside
Hope Intl
Talladega
Lourdes
Mobile
Vanguard
Lewis-Clark
Dordt
Menlo
Carroll
Florida Col
St Thomas
Point Park
Methodology
- I am ignoring the NAIA Coach’s Top 25, except to see if there’s a team on it I might have overlooked.
- I am a fan of the Massey Rating, but it’s purely statistical, which cannot account for fundamental changes in teams like injuries, eligibility changes, and substantial changes in teamwork.
- That said, Massey is a great data source in terms of records and schedules, so I use the Massey data to track who is playing who, and the records of teams and their opponents. If you find a flaw in my data, it’s probably because there’s a flaw in Massey’s data. Which does happen from time to time.
- There are two data points in Massey that I do make use of:
- Rating, for the purpose of comparing how a given team does against an objective NAIA Top 40 team. I don’t consider whether the game against an NAIA Massey Top 40 is #1 or #40, so their specific placing within Massey doesn’t matter as long as they are #40 or higher.
- Strength of Schedule (SOS) and Strength of Schedule – Future (SSF) is useful to compare one team’s schedule vs another, and for evaluating whether a given team’s schedule will get harder or easier as the season wears on. In other words, it helps expose early season cupcake schedules.
- There are four things I consider most import:
- A team’s record vs NAIA teams
- A team’s record vs NAIA teams with current winning records (not necessarily winning records at the time of the game)
- A team’s number of losses to NAIA teams that currently have losing records
- A team’s record against Massey’s current NAIA Top 40.
- My aim is to publish a Top 25 on the weeks the NAIA coaches aren’t publishing theirs.
